Economy

The need for Competition Law becomes more evident when foreign direct investment (FDI) is liberalised. The impact of FDI is not always pro-competitive. Very often FDI takes the form of a foreign corporation acquiring a domestic enterprise or establishing a joint venture with one. By making such an acquisition the foreign investor may substantially lessen competition and gain a dominant position in the relevant market, thus charging higher prices. Another scenario is where the affiliates of two separate multinational companies (MNCs) have been established in competition with one another in a particular developing economy, following the liberalisation of FDI. Subsequently, the parent companies overseas merge. With the affiliates no longer remaining independent, competition in the host country may be virtually eliminated and the prices of the products may be artificially inflated. Most of these adverse consequences of mergers and acquisitions by MNCs can be avoided if an effective competition law is in place. Also, an economy that has implemented an effective competition law is in a better position to attract FDI than one that has not. This is not just because most MNCs are expected to be accustomed to the operation of such a law in their home countries and know how to deal with such concerns but also that MNCs expect competition authorities to ensure a level playing field between domestic and foreign firms.

The poor especially in market economies, need the strength that collectivities offer for creating more economic, social and political space for themselves, for enhancing their socio-economic well-being and voice, and as a protection against free market individualism. It has been argued that a group approach to farming, especially in the form of bottom up agricultural production collectivities, offers substantial scope for poverty alleviation and empowering the poor as well as enhancing agricultural productivity. To realise this potential, however, the groups would need to be voluntary in nature, small in size, participative in decision making and equitable in work sharing and benefit distribution. There are many notable examples of such collectivities to be found in varied contexts, such as in the transition economies. All of them bear witness to the possibility of successful cooperation under given conditions. And although the gender impact of the family cooperatives in the transition economies are uncertain, the Indian examples of women-only groups farming offer considerable potential for benefiting women.

Corporate governance is based on principles such as conducting the business with all integrity and fairness, being transparent with regard to all transactions, making all the necessary disclosures and decisions, complying with all the laws of the land, accountability and responsibility towards the stakeholders and commitment to conducting business in an ethical manner. Another point which is highlighted on corporate governance is the need for those in control to be able to distinguish between what are personal and corporate funds while managing a company.

Fundamentally, there is a level of confidence that is associated with a company that is known to have good corporate governance. The presence of an active group of independent directors on the board contributes a great deal towards ensuring confidence in the market. Corporate governance is known to be one of the criteria that foreign institutional investors are increasingly depending on when deciding on which companies to invest in. It is also known to have a positive influence on the share price of the company. Having a clean image on the corporate governance front could also make it easier for companies to source capital at more reasonable costs. Unfortunately, corporate governance often becomes the centre of discussion only after the exposure of a large scam.

A number of empirical studies find that farmers are risk-averse, though only moderately in many cases. There is also evidence to show that farmers’ risk aversion results in cropping patterns and input use designed to reduce risk rather than to maximize income. Farmers adopt a number of strategies to manage and cope with agricultural risks. These include practices like crop and field diversification, non-farm employment, storage of stocks and strategic migration of family members. There are also institutions ranging from share tenancy to kinship, extended family and informal credit agencies. One major obstacle to risk sharing by farmers is that the same type of risks can affect a large number of farmers in the region. Empirical studies show that the traditional methods are not adequate. Hence there is a need for policy interventions, especially measures that cut across geographical regions.

Policies may aim at tackling agricultural risks directly or indirectly. Examples of risk-specific policies are crop insurance, price stabilization and the development of varieties resistant to pests and diseases. Policies which affect risk indirectly are irrigation, subsidized credit and access to information. No single risk-specific policy is sufficient to reduce risk and is without side-effects, whereas policies not specific to risk influence the general situation and affect risks only indirectly. Crop insurance, as a policy measure to tackle agricultural risk directly, deserves careful consideration in the Indian context and in many other developing countries – because the majority of farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture and in many areas yield variability is the predominant cause of their income instability.

Financial markets in India have acquired greater depth and liquidity over the years. Steady reforms since 1991 have led to growing linkages and integration of the Indian economy and its financial system with the global economy. Weak global economic prospects and continuing uncertainties in the international financial markets therefore, have had their impact on the emerging market economies. Sovereign risk concerns, particularly in the Euro area, affected financial markets for the greater part of the year, with the contagion of Greece’s sovereign debt problem spreading to India and other economies by way of higher-than-normal levels of volatility.

The funding constraints in international financial markets could impact both the availability and cost of foreign funding for banks and corporates. Since the Indian financial system is bank dominated, banks’ ability to withstand stress is critical to overall financial stability. Indian banks, however, remain robust, notwithstanding a decline in capital to risk-weighted assets ratio and a rise in non-performing asset levels in the recent past. Capital adequacy levels remain above the regulatory requirements. The financial market infrastructure continues to function without any major disruption. With further globalization, consolidation, deregulation, and diversification of the financial system, the banking business may become more complex and riskier. Issues like risk and liquidity management and enhancing skill therefore assume greater significance.

In recent times, India has grown fast not only compared to its own past but also in comparison with other nations. But there cannot be any room for complacency because it is possible for the Indian economy to develop even faster and also to spread the benefits of this growth more widely than has been done thus far. Before going into details of the kinds of micro-structural changes that we need to conceptualize and then proceed to implement, it is worthwhile elaborating on the idea of inclusive growth that constitutes the defining concept behind this Government’s various economic policies and decisions. A nation interested in inclusive growth views the same growth differently depending on whether the gains of the growth are heaped primarily on a small segment or shared widely by the population. The latter is cause for celebration but not the former. In other words, growth must not be treated as an end in itself but as an instrument for spreading prosperity to all. India’s own past experience and the experience of other nations suggests that growth is necessary for eradicating poverty but it is not a sufficient condition. In other words, policies for promoting growth need to be complemented with policies to ensure that more and more people join in the growth process and, further, that there are mechanisms in place to redistribute some of the gains to those who are unable to partake in the market process and, hence, get left behind.

A simple way of giving this idea of inclusive growth a sharper form is to measure a nation’s progress in terms of the progress of its poorest segment, for instance the bottom 20 per cent of the population. One could measure the per capita income of the bottom quintile of the population and also calculate the growth rate of income; and evaluate our economic success in terms of these measures that pertain to the poorest segment. This approach is attractive because it does not ignore growth like some of the older heterodox criteria did. It simply looks at the growth of income of the poorest sections of the population. It also ensures that those who are outside of the bottom quintile do not get ignored. If that were done, then those people would in all likelihood drop down into the bottom quintile and so would automatically become a direct target of our policies. Hence the criterion being suggested here is a statistical summing up of the idea of inclusive growth, which, in turn, leads to two corollaries: to wish that India must strive to achieve high growth and that we must work to ensure that the weakest segments benefit from the growth.

It is easy for the government to control State-owned companies through nods and winks. So what really needs to be done as a first step is to put petrol pricing on a transparent formula — if the price of crude is x and the exchange rate y, then every month or fortnight, the government announces a maximum price of petrol, which anybody can work out from the x and the y. The rule has to be worked out to make sure that the oil-marketing companies can, in general, cover their costs. This will mean that if one company can innovate and cut costs, it will make greater profits. Hence, firms will be more prone to innovate and be efficient under this system. Once the rule is announced, there should be no interference by the government. If this is done for a while, private companies will re-enter this market. And once a sufficient number of them are in the fray, we can remove the rule-based pricing and leave it truly to the market (subject to, of course, the usual regulations of anti-trust and other competition laws).

It is often forgotten that globalization is not only about policies on international economic relationships and transactions, but has equally to do with domestic policies of a nation. Policy changes necessitated by meeting the internationally set conditions (by WTO etc.) of free trade and investment flows obviously affect domestic producers and investors. But the basic philosophy underlying globalization emphasizes absolute freedom to markets to determine prices and production and distribution patterns, and view government interventions as processes that create distortions and bring in inefficiency. Thus, public enterprises have to be privatized through disinvestments and sales; sectors and activities hitherto reserved for the public sector have to be opened to the private sector. This logic extends to the social services like education and health. Any restrictions on the adjustments in workforce by way of retrenchment of workers should also be removed and exit should be made easier by removing any restrictions on closures. Employment and wages should be governed by free play of market forces, as any measure to regulate them can discourage investment and also create inefficiency in production. Above all, in line with the overall philosophy of reduction in the role of the State, fiscal reforms should be undertaken to have generally low levels of taxation and government expenditure should be kept to the minimum to abide by the principle of fiscal prudence. All these are policy actions on the domestic front and are not directly related to the core items of the globalization agenda, namely free international flow of goods and finance.

Many nations now place their faith in capitalism and governments choose it as the strategy to create wealth for their people. The spectacular economic growth seen in Brazil, China and India after the liberalisation of their economies is proof of its enormous potential and success. However, the global banking crisis and the economic recession have left many bewildered. The debates tend to focus on free market operations and forces, their efficiency and their ability for self correction. Issues of justice, integrity and honesty are rarely elaborated to highlight the failure of the global banking system. The apologists of the system continue to justify the success of capitalism and argue that the recent crisis was a blip.

Their arguments betray an ideological bias with the assumptions that an unregulated market is fair and competent, and that the exercise of private greed will be in the larger public interest.

Few recognize the bidirectional relationship between capitalism and greed; that each reinforces the other. Surely, a more honest conceptualisation of the conflicts of interest among the rich and powerful players who have benefited from the system, their biases and ideology is needed; the focus on the wealth creation should also highlight the resultant gross inequity.

Net profits are only 2·2% of their total assets for central public sector undertakings, lower than for the private corporate sector. While the public sector or the State-led entrepreneurship played an important role in triggering India’s industrialization, our evolving development needs, comparatively less-than-satisfactory performance of the public sector enterprises, the maturing of our private sector, a much larger social base now available for expanding entrepreneurship and the growing institutional capabilities to enforce competition policies would suggest that the time has come to review the role of public sector.

What should the portfolio composition of the government be? It should not remain static all times. The airline industry works well as a purely private affair. At the opposite end, rural roads, whose sparse traffic makes tolling unviable, have to be on the balance-sheet of the State. If the government did not own rural roads, they would not exist. Similarly, public health capital in our towns and cities will need to come from the public sector. Equally, preservation and improvement of forest cover will have to be a new priority for the public sector assets.

Take the example of steel. With near-zero tariffs, India is a globally competitive market for the metal. Indian firms export steel into the global market, which demonstrates there is no gap in technology. Indian companies are buying up global steel companies, which shows there is no gap in capital availability. Under these conditions, private ownership works best.

Private ownership is clearly desirable in regulated industries, ranging from finance to infrastructure, where a government agency performs the function of regulation and multiple competing firms are located in the private sector. Here, the simple and clean solution — government as the umpire and the private sector as the players is what works best. In many of these industries, we have a legacy of government ownership, where productivity tends to be lower, fear of bankruptcy is absent, and the risk of asking for money from the tax payer is ever present. There is also the conflict of interest between government as an owner and as the regulator. The formulation and implementation of competition policy will be more vigorous and fair if government companies are out of action.

By 2050, the Earth’s population will likely have swelled from seven to nine billion people. To fill all those stomachs — while accounting for shifting consumption patterns, climate change, and a finite amount of arable land and potable water — some experts say food production will have to double. How can we make the numbers add up? Experts say higher yielding crop varieties and more efficient farming methods will be crucial. So will waste reduction. Experts urge cities to reclaim nutrients and water from waste streams and preserve farmland. Poor countries, they say, can improve crop storage and packaging and rich nations could cut back on resource-intensive foods like meat.

Individuals, groups and leaders who promote human development operate under strong institutional, structural and political constraints that affect policy options. But experience suggests broad principles for shaping an appropriate agenda for human development. One important finding from several decades of human development experience is that focusing exclusively on economic growth is problematic. While we have good knowledge about how to advance health and education, the causes of growth are much less certain and growth is often elusive. Further, an unbalanced emphasis on growth is often associated with negative environmental consequences and adverse distributional effects. The experience of China, with its impressive growth record, reflects these broader concerns and underlines the importance of balanced approaches that emphasize investments in the non-income aspects of human development.

The Global Financial Stability Report finds that the share of portfolio investments from advanced economies in the total debt and equity investments in emerging economies has doubled in the past decade to 12 percent. The phenomenon has implications for Indian policy makers as foreign portfolio investments in the debt and equity markets have been on the rise. The phenomenon is also flagged as a threat that could compromise global financial stability in a chain reaction, in the event of United States Federal Reserve’s imminent reversal of its “Quantitative Easing” policy.

The existence/establishment of formal financial institutions that offer safe, reliable, and alternative financial instruments is fundamental in mobilising savings. To save, individuals need access to safe and reliable financial institutions, such as banks, and to appropriate financial instruments and reasonable financial incentives. Such access is not always available to all people in developing countries like India and more so, in rural areas. Savings help poor households manage volatility in cash flow, smoothen consumption, and build working capital. Poor households without access to a formal savings mechanism encourage immediate spending temptations.

India has suffered from persistent high inflation. Increase in administered prices, demand and supply imbalances, imported inflation aggravated by rupee depreciation, and speculation — have combined to keep high inflation going. If there is an element common to all of them, it is that many of them are the outcomes of economic reforms. India’s vulnerability to the effects of changes in international prices has increased with trade liberalisation. The effort to reduce subsidies has resulted in a continuous increase in the prices of commodities that are administered.

By killing transparency and competition, crony capitalism is harmful to free enterprise, opportunity and economic growth. Crony capitalism, where rich and the influential are alleged to have received land and natural resources and various licences in return for payoffs to venal politicians, is now a major issue to be tackled. One of the greatest dangers to growth of developing economies like India is the middle-income trap where crony capitalism creates oligarchies that slow down the growth.

In the last decade, the banking sector has been restructured with a high degree of automation and products that mainly serve middle-class and upper middle-class society. Today there is a need for a new agenda for the banking and non-banking financial services that does not exclude the common man.

"The conceptual difficulties in National Income comparisons between underdeveloped and industrialised countries are particularly serious because a part of the national output in various underdeveloped countries is produced without passing through the commercial channels."

Historically, the biggest challenge to world agriculture has been to achieve a balance between demand for and supply of food. At the level of individual countries, the demand-supply balance can be a critical policy issue for a closed economy, especially if it is a populous economy and its domestic agriculture is not growing sufficiently enough to ensure food supplies, on an enduring basis; it is not so much and not always, of a constraint for an open, and growing economy, which has adequate exchange surpluses to buy food abroad. For the world as a whole, supply-demand balance is always an inescapable prerequisite for warding off hunger and starvation. However, global availability of adequate supply does not necessarily mean that food would automatically move from countries of surplus to countries of deficit if the latter lack in purchasing power. The uneven distribution of hunger, starvation, under- or malnourishment, etc., at the world-level, thus owes itself to the presence of empty-pocket hungry mouths, overwhelmingly confined to the underdeveloped economies. Inasmuch as 'a two-square meal' is of elemental significance to basic human existence, the issue of worldwide supply of food has been gaining significance, in recent times, both because the quantum and the composition of demand has been undergoing big changes, and because, in recent years, the capabilities of individual countries to generate uninterrupted chain of food supplies have come under strain. Food production, marketing and prices, especially price-affordability by the poor in the developing world, have become global issues that need global thinking and global solutions.

In the last two decades, the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 50 per cent, whereas inclusive wealth has increased by a mere 6 per cent. In recent decades, GDP-driven economic performance has only harmed inclusive wealth like human capital; and natural capital like forests, land and water. While the world’s human capital which stands at 57 per cent of total inclusive wealth grew by only 8 per cent, the natural capital which is 23 per cent of total inclusive wealth declined by 30 per cent worldwide in the last two decades.

By 2020, when the global economy is expected to run short of 56 million young people, India, with its youth surplus of 47 million, could fill the gap. It is in this context that labour reforms are often cited as the way to unlock double-digit growth in India. In 2014, India’s labour force was estimated to be about 40 per cent of the population, but 93 per cent of this force was in unorganized sector. Over the last decade, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of employment has slowed to 0·5 per cent, with about 14 million jobs created during last year when the labour force increased by about 15 million.

The IMF has pointed out that the fast growing economies of Asia face the risk of falling into ‘middle-income trap’. It means that average incomes in these countries, which till now have been growing rapidly, will stop growing beyond a point—a point that is well short of incomes in the developed West. The IMF identifies a number of causes of middle-income trap—none of which is surprising—from infrastructure to weak institutions, to less than favourable macroeconomic conditions. But the broad, overall cause, says IMF, is a collapse in the growth of productivity.

An innovative India will be inclusive as well as technologically advanced, improving the lives of all Indians. Innovation and R&D can mitigate increases in social inequality and relieve the pressures created by rapid urbanization. The growing divergence in productivity between agriculture and knowledge-intensive manufacturing and services threatens to increase income inequality. By encouraging India’s R&D labs and universities to focus on the needs of poor people and by improving the ability of informal firms to absorb knowledge, an innovation and research agenda can counter this effect. Inclusive innovation can lower the costs of goods and services and create income-earning opportunities for the poor people.

Productive jobs are vital for growth and a good job is the best form of inclusion. More than half of our population depends on agriculture, but the experience of other countries suggests that the number of people dependent on agriculture will have to shrink if per capita incomes in agriculture are to go up substantially. While industry is creating jobs, too many such jobs are low-productivity non-contractual jobs in the unorganized sector, offering low incomes, little protection, and no benefits. Service jobs are relatively of high productivity, but employment growth in services has been slow in recent years.

The medium term challenge for Indian manufacturing is to move from lower to higher tech sectors, from lower to higher value-added sectors, and from lower to higher productivity sectors. Medium tech industries are primarily capital intensive and resource processing; and high tech industries are mainly capital and technology intensive. In order to push the share of manufacturing in overall GDP to the projected 25 per cent, Indian manufacturing needs to capture the global market in sectors showing a rising trend in demand. These sectors are largely high technology and capital intensive.

Over the last decade, Indian agriculture has become more robust with record production of food grains and oilseeds. Increased procurement, consequently, has added huge stocks of food grains in the granaries. India is one of the world’s top producers of rice, wheat, milk, fruits and vegetables. India is still home to a quarter of all undernourished people in the world. On an average, almost half of the total expenditure of nearly half of the households is on food.

Global population was around 1·6 billion in 1990—today it is around 7·2 billion and growing. Recent estimates on population growth predict a global population of 9·6 billion in 2050 and 10·9 billion in 2100. Unlike Europe and North America, where only three to four per cent of population is engaged in agriculture, around 47 per cent of India’s population is dependent upon agriculture. Even if India continues to do well in the service sector and the manufacturing sector picks up, it is expected that around 2030 when India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country, nearly 42 per cent of India’s population will still be predominantly dependent on agriculture.

Being a member of the WTO, India is bound by the agreements that have been signed and ratified by its members, including itself. According to Article 6 of the Agriculture Agreement, providing minimum support prices for agricultural products is considered distorting and is subject to limits. The subsidy arising from ‘minimal supports’ cannot exceed 10 per cent of the value of agricultural production for developing countries. PDS in India entails minimum support prices and public stockholding of food grains. It is possible that, in some years, the subsidy to producers will exceed 10 per cent of the value of agricultural production.

Inequality is visible, even statistically measurable in many instances, but the economic power that drives it is invisible and not measurable. Like the force of gravity, power is the organising principle of inequality, be it of income, or wealth, gender, race, religion and region. Its effects are seen in a pervasive manner in all spheres, but the ways in which economic power pulls and tilts visible economic variables remain invisibly obscure.

With the digital phenomenon restructuring most social sectors, it is little surprise that global trade negotiations are now eyeing the digital area in an attempt to pre-emptively colonise it. Big Data is freely collected or mined from developing countries, and converted into digital intelligence in developed countries. This intelligence begins to control different sectors and extract monopoly rents. A large foreign company providing cab service, for instance, is not a network of cars and drivers; it is digital intelligence about commuting, public transport, roads, traffic, city events, personal behavioural characteristics of commuters and drivers and so on.

A vast majority of Indians are poor, with barely 10 percent employed in the organised sector. We are being convinced that vigorous economic growth is generating substantial employment. But this is not so. When our economy was growing at 3 percent per year, employment in the organised sector was growing at 2 percent per year. As the economy began to grow at 7 − 8 percent per year, the rate of growth of employment in the organised sector actually declined to 1 percent per year.

India has banking correspondents, who help bring people in the hinterland into the banking fold. For them to succeed, banks cannot crimp on costs. They also cannot afford to ignore investing in financial education and literacy. Banking correspondents are way too small to be viewed as a systemic risk. Yet India's banking regulator has restricted them to serving only one bank, perhaps to prevent arbitrage. Efforts at banking outreach may succeed only if there are better incentives at work for such last-mile workers and also those providers who ensure not just basic bank accounts but also products such as accident and life insurance and micro pension schemes.

India's economic footprint, given its population, still remains small compared to the US, the European Union or China. It has much to learn from other economies, yet must implement solutions that fit its unique circumstances. India especially needs an effective long-term regulatory system based on collaboration rather than the current top-down approach. Regulations seek desirable outcomes yet are repeatedly used as political tools to push one agenda or another. Often, regulations fail to consider impacts on jobs and economic growth — or less restrictive alternatives. Regulations may be used to protect local markets at the expense of more widely shared prosperity in the future. Additionally, regulations inevitably result in numerous unintended consequences. In today's hyper competitive global economy, regulations need to be viewed as "weapons" that seek cost-justified social and environmental benefits while improving the economic well-being of most citizens.

In India, over the last decade or so, labour has been departing agriculture, but is only going to construction and unregistered manufacturing which are not markedly better jobs. Services, where labour tends to be most productive, are not generating the additional jobs the country needs. India will need 24 million or so jobs over the next decade. The new sector, e-commerce, can at best close only half the jobs gap. Only those sectors that drive domestic demand such as health and education can comfortably fill the other half.

Asset allocation is the most important investment decision we will ever make, and sadly, most of us do not give that decision the importance it deserves. We are adamant about seeking predictability with our future. We tend to think of investing in risky assets as extremely volatile and value eroding. We also dislike fluctuating returns and the loss of control of investment. We think our money is best left idle, unproductive but safe. There is no asset that is risk-free. We could lose our jobs, our homes can lose value, our banks can go bankrupt, our bonds can default, the government can collapse and companies we chose fondly may cease to exist. But we cannot live life assuming that all these extreme events are waiting to happen, and all at the same time. All these extreme forms of risks we know will not manifest at the same time.

Private investment in general is volatile. Foreign private investment is more volatile because the available investment avenues are significantly greater (i.e., the entire world). Therefore, the responsibility of providing employment cannot be left to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The current FDI inflows are volatile over time and across sectors and regions, which is a necessary consequence of their search for the highest returns. The adverse consequences are unstable employment and an accentuation of income and regional inequalities. A probable positive consequence of foreign investment is the inflow of new technology and its subsequent diffusion. However, the technology diffusion is not at all certain because the existing state of physical and human capital in India may prove inadequate for the diffusion.

People will invest in education whenever they are granted the economic freedom to fully enjoy its benefits. Again, this is for the obvious reason that the return on education increases as the level of economic freedom rises. When people, thanks to lower tax rates, are allowed to retain most of the higher income that they gain from each incremental level of education, it makes eminent sense to invest in education. On the other hand, when the government decides to tax the higher income of educated individuals at even higher rates, it makes very little sense to invest in educating oneself further. The same incentives apply to parents who decide on whether to invest in their children’s education.

In India, agriculture still engages about half of its workforce, and about 85 per cent of its farms are small and marginal. Compared to China and Vietnam, which have experienced fast structural and rural transformation, India’s story is of slow transformation. As a result, poverty reduction in India was at a much slower pace during 1988–2014, compared to China and Vietnam. India’s poverty reduction was slow during 1988–2005, but during 2005–2012, it accelerated dramatically—almost three times faster than during the earlier period. What did India do during this period? Research reveals that the relative price scenario changed significantly (by more than 50%) in favour of agriculture in the wake of rising global prices. This boosted private investments in agriculture by more than 50%. As a result, agri-GDP growth touched 4·1% during 2007–2012 as against 2·4% during 2002–2007. The net surplus of agri-trade touched $25 billion in 2013–2014; real farm wages rose by 7% per annum. All this led to unprecedented fall in poverty.

Economic liberalization in India was shaped largely by the economic problems of the government than by the economic priorities of the people or by the long-term development objectives. Thus, there were limitations in conception and design which have been subsequently validated by experience. Jobless growth, persistent poverty and rising inequality have mounted as problems since economic liberalization began. And all these years later, four quiet crises confront the economy; agriculture, infrastructure, industrialization and education as constraints on the country’s future prospects. These problems must be resolved if economic growth has to be sustained and transformed into meaningful development.

Bank credit to the industrial sector has started shrinking. Its decline has been a serious concern as credit growth is essential to revive investment. The problem’s origins lie in the incomplete reforms of the last 25 years. An institutional change that should have followed the 1991 reforms should have been setting up of a resolution corporation for banks. In a market economy with booms and busts, banks should be allowed to be set up and to fail. Today, we cannot shut down banks because there is no proper system to shut them down. Weak loss-making banks continue to need more capital.

Policy makers and media have placed the blame for skyrocketing food prices on a variety of factors, including high fuel prices, bad weather in key food producing countries, and the diversion of land to non-food production. Increased emphasis, however, has been placed on a surge in demand for food from the most populous emerging economies. It seems highly probable that mass consumption in these countries could be well poised to create a food crisis.

A central message of modern development economics is the importance of income growth, by which is meant growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In theory, rising GDP creates employment and investment opportunities. As incomes grow in a country where the level of GDP was once low, households, communities, and governments are increasingly able to set aside some funds for the production of things that make for a good life. Today GDP has assumed such a significant place in the development lexicon, that if someone mentions “economic growth”, we know they mean growth in GDP.

The resolution of bankruptcy cases of Indian banks under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code should help bring non-performing assets (NPA) situation under some control. Despite the slow pace of resolutions by the National Company Law Tribunal, the Code can be helpful in cleaning up bank books in future credit cycles. The recapitalisation of public sector banks too can help increase the capital cushion of banks and induce them to lend more and boost economic activity. But bad debt resolution and recapitalisation are only a part of the solution as they, by themselves, can do very little to rein in reckless lending that has pushed the Indian banking system to its current sorry state. Unless there are systemic reforms that address the problem of unsustainable lending, future credit cycles will continue to stress the banking system.

In India, the objective of macroeconomic policy is to enhance the economic welfare of the people, and any one wing of such macro policy, monetary or fiscal, cannot independently work without active support of another.

Medieval merchants risked the hazards of the Silk Road to reach the markets of China; Portuguese caravels in the 15ᵗʰ century sailed beyond the bounds of the known world, searching less for knowledge than for gold and spices. Historically, the driver for opening frontiers has always been the search for resources. Science and curiosity are weaker drivers. The only way to open up space, whether the space of solar system or interstellar space is to create an economic engine and that engine is resource extraction.

The poverty line is quite unsatisfactory when it comes to grasping the extent of poverty in India. It is not only because of its extremely narrow definition of ‘who is poor’ and the debatable methodology used to count the poor, but also because of a more fundamental assumption underlying it. It exclusively relies on the notion of poverty as insufficient income or insufficient purchasing power. One can better categorize it by calling it income poverty. If poverty is ultimately about deprivations affecting human well-being, then income poverty is only one aspect of it. Poverty of a life, in our view, lies not merely in the impoverished state in which the person actually lives, but also in the lack of real opportunity given by social constraints as well as personal circumstances—to choose other types of living. Even the relevance of low incomes, meagre possessions, and other aspects of what are standardly seen as economic poverty relate ultimately to their role in curtailing capabilities, i.e., their role in severely restricting the choices people have to lead variable and valued lives.

In some places in the world, the productivity of staples such as rice and wheat has reached a plateau. Neither new strains nor fancy agrochemicals are raising the yields. Nor is there much unfarmed land left that is suitable to be brought under the plough. If global temperature continues to rise, some places will become unsuitable for farming. Application of technology can help overcome these problems. Agricultural technology is changing fast. Much of this change is brought about by affluent farmers in the West/Americas. Techniques developed in the West are being adapted in some places to make tropical crops more productive. Technology is of little use if it is not adapted. In the developing world, that applies as much to existing farming techniques as it does to the latest advances in genetic modification. Extending to the smallholders and subsistence farmers of Africa and Asia the best of today’s agricultural practices, in such simple matters as how much fertilizers to apply and when, would lead to a greatly increased availability of food for humanity. So would things like better roads and storage facilities, to allow for the carriage of surpluses to markets and reduce wastage.

The demographic dividend, which has begun in India and is expected to last another few decades, is a great window of opportunity. The demographic dividend is basically a swelling in the working age population, which conversely means that the relative ratio of very young and very old will, for a while, be on the decline. From the experience of Ireland and China, we know that this can be a source of energy and an engine of economic growth. The demographic dividend tends to raise a nation’s savings rate since in any nation, it is the working age population that is the main saver. And since the savings rate is an important driver of growth, this should help elevate our growth rate. However, the benefits of demographic dividend depend on the quality of the working age population. And this implies bringing back the importance of education, acquisition of skills and human capital.

Good corporate governance structures encourage companies to provide accountability and control. A fundamental reason why corporate governance has moved onto the economic and political agenda worldwide has been the rapid growth in international capital markets. Effective corporate governance enhances access to external financing by firms, leading to greater investment, higher growth and employment. Investors look to place their funds where the standards of disclosure, of timely and accurate financial reporting, and of equal treatment to all stakeholders are met.

Household finance in India is unique. We have a tendency to invest heavily in physical assets such as gold and property. Steps to encourage the financialization of savings are critical. A populace accustomed to traditional processes will not simply jump into financialization. Hurdles to change include onerous bureaucracy, a scepticism of organized financial institutions, a lack of basic information about which of the myriad services and providers is best for each family, and how (and even if) one can make the transition between them if necessary.

Pharmaceutical patents grant protection to the patentee for the duration of the patent term. The patentees enjoy the liberty to determine the prices of medicines, which is time-limited to the period of monopoly, but could be unaffordable to the public. Such patent protection offered to the patentees is believed to benefit the public over the longer term through innovations and research and development (R&D), although it comes at a cost, in the nature of higher prices for the patented medicine. The patent regime and price protection — through a legally validated high price for the medicine during the currency of the patent — provide the patentee with a legitimate mechanism to get returns on the costs incurred in innovation and research.

In India, while the unemployment rate is a frequently used measure of poor performance of the economy, under conditions of rising school and college enrolment, it paints an inaccurate picture. The reported unemployment rate is dominated by the experience of younger Indians who face higher employment challenges and exhibit greater willingness to wait for the right job than their older peers. The unemployment challenge is greater for people with secondary or higher education, and rising education levels inflate unemployment challenges.

As inflation rises, even governments previously committed to budget discipline are spending freely to help households. Higher interest rates announced by central banks are supposed to help produce modest fiscal austerity, because to maintain stable debts while paying more to borrow, governments must cut spending or raise taxes. Without the fiscal backup, monetary policy eventually loses traction. Higher interest rates become inflationary, not disinflationary, because they simply lead governments to borrow more to pay rising debt-service costs. The risk of monetary unmooring is greater when public debt rises, because interest rates become more important to budget deficits.

If the social inequality is the most acutely felt social problem in India, insecurity, more than poverty, is the most acutely felt economic problem. Besides those below the official poverty line, even those just over the poverty line are subject to multiple economic insecurities of various kinds (due to wealth and/or health risks, market fluctuations, job-related uncertainties). Many Government policies are actually intended towards mitigating these insecurities.

One of the dismal realities of the agricultural sector in independent India has been that it never experienced a high-growth phase, unlike the non-agricultural economy. The highest decadal growth (compound annual growth rate or CAGR) for agriculture has been just 3·5% in the 1980s. Also, after experiencing a spurt in decadal growth during the 1980s, agricultural growth suffered relative stagnation thereafter. This is in sharp contrast to non-agricultural growth, which consistently increased from the 1980s to 2000s.

If there is inequality in the pattern of population growth, there is greater inequality in food production and utilization. As societies become wealthier, their consumption of animal products increases. This means that a greater proportion of such basic foodstuff as grains and legumes that could feed humans directly is instead being converted into feed for poultry and large farm animals. Yet this conversion of plant-based food into animal food for humans is far from efficient. Only 16% of the calories fed to chickens are recovered by us when we eat them. This conversion rate goes down to five to seven per cent in large animals that are fed grain to add fat and some protein before slaughter.

There has been no democracy that has grown economically without corporate capitalism. It helps in modernizing the economy and enabling the transition from rural to urban, and agriculture to industry and services, which are inevitable with growth. It generates jobs — and there is no other way to fix a country’s unemployment challenge without a further impetus to private business. Big companies can operate on a large scale and become competitive both domestically and externally. A vibrant corporate capitalist base also leads to additional revenues for the State — which in turn, can be used for greater welfare for the marginalized and creating a more level playing field in terms of opportunities.

A single number for inflation is an aggregate across different commodities and services — the price rise differs for different items of consumption. So, the single number is arrived at by assigning weights to different commodities and services. For WPI, the weights in production are used; for CPI, the consumption basket is used. But people are not homogeneous. The consumption basket is vastly different for the poor, the middle classes, and the rich. Hence, the CPI is different for each of these classes and a composite index requires averaging the baskets.

How is deflation done? Most countries use a method called ‘double deflation’, where input and output prices are deflated separately. Consider a manufacturer importing oil for use in production. If oil prices fall, output prices do not and quantities remain the same, real value added should not change. But if the same deflator is used for inputs and outputs, as in India, it would look as if the manufacturer had become more productive.

The process by which countries close their labour-productivity gap with the technology leader is based on convergence theory. The convergence model divides economic eras into three phases: the breakaway, the catch-up, and the fine-tuning phase. It also divides economic entities into two categories: the technology leaders and the technology followers. The process begins with the development of a new technology, such as scavenging three million years ago (MYA), hunting—one MYA, farming—12 thousand years ago, and industrial technology—a little more than 200 years ago. During the breakaway phase, the per capita income of the technology leaders (e.g., Western Europe and North America in the industrial era) rises, but is unchanged for the technology followers. In the catch-up phase, the followers adopt the new technology and close their per capita income gap with the technology leaders. In the fine-tuning phase, where participants try to extract the remaining benefits from an increasingly exhausted technology, leaders and followers have similar per capita incomes.