Population: transition, dividend and policy

The first principle

A population grows when births exceed deaths, and the number of births depends less on contraceptives than on what parents, above all mothers, can hope for their children. When children survive, when girls study and marry later, and when women earn, families choose to have fewer children. That is why every country passes through a demographic transition, why India's states are at different points in it, and why coercion failed in India while education and health succeeded.

The core

The demographic transition model

• The model describes how a society moves from high birth and death rates to low ones: deaths fall first through public health and food security, births fall later as social change catches up, and the gap between them is the period of rapid growth.
• India stayed in the first stage until about 1921, the "year of the great divide", after which deaths fell steadily. The country as a whole is now at the end of the third stage, while Kerala, Tamil Nadu and most southern and western states have already reached the fourth.
• Population keeps rising for decades even after fertility falls to replacement, because a large number of young people are still entering their reproductive years. This is population momentum, and it explains why India's population is projected to peak only in the early 2060s, at about 1.7 billion (United Nations World Population Prospects 2024).

Where India stands: fertility

• The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5 (2019 to 2021) recorded a total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime, of 2.0, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. Only five states remained above replacement: Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3) and Manipur (2.2).

The demographic dividend and its window

• A demographic dividend is the boost to growth that comes when the working age population (15 to 64) is large compared with dependent children and the old, so that the dependency ratio falls and savings, labour and investment can rise. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) places India's window roughly between 2005 and 2055, and the Economic Survey 2018 to 2019 projected that the working age share will peak around 2041.
• The dividend is not automatic: East Asia cashed it by combining a young workforce with mass schooling, health and factory jobs.

Ageing and the demographic winter

• The Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI), Wave 1 (2017 to 2018), by the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), found that many older people live with chronic disease and most lack pension or health cover. The India Ageing Report 2023 estimates that people aged 60 and above formed 10.5 per cent of the population in 2022 and will form 20.8 per cent by 2050; by about 2046 they are projected to outnumber children aged 0 to 14.
• A demographic winter means a long period of fertility far below replacement, which leads to rapid ageing, a shrinking workforce and finally a falling population. South Korea (TFR of 0.72 in 2023), Japan, Italy and China are in it, and China's population has fallen since 2022.
• Is the world heading there? World Population Prospects 2024 puts the global TFR at about 2.25 and projects that world population will peak in the mid 2080s at about 10.3 billion and then decline slowly. More than half of all countries are already below replacement, so the world is moving towards a winter, though unevenly, as sub Saharan Africa keeps growing. India is not in a winter yet, but its southern states, with TFRs between 1.4 and 1.8, are on the same path as East Asia, only without East Asia's wealth.

Dimensions

• Regional. The north is young and the south is old, so the south needs workers and care while the north needs jobs, and migration is already the bridge.
• Political. The 42nd Amendment (1976) froze the number of Lok Sabha seats per state on the basis of the 1971 Census, and the 84th Amendment (2001) extended the freeze until the first Census after 2026. Delimitation on new figures would shift seats from the south to the north, so states that controlled population fear being penalised for success.
• Fiscal. The Fifteenth Finance Commission used the 2011 Census but added a demographic performance criterion (weight 12.5 per cent) to reward states that lowered fertility.
• Economic. The female labour force participation rate, about 41.7 per cent in the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023 to 2024, remains low, which halves the dividend before it begins.

In practice

Population policy: from targets to rights

• India launched a national family planning programme in 1952, the first country to do so. From the late 1960s it turned to sterilisation targets and camps, and during the Emergency (1975 to 1977) forced sterilisations, over 80 lakh in 1976 to 1977, discredited family planning for a generation.
• After the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) at Cairo (1994) placed reproductive rights and choice at the centre, India adopted the target free approach in 1996, in which health workers assess the needs of each community instead of chasing numbers.
• The National Population Policy (NPP) 2000 set an immediate objective of meeting the unmet need for contraception and health services, a medium term objective of bringing TFR to replacement by 2010, and a long term objective of a stable population by 2045. Its socio demographic goals included an infant mortality rate below 30 per 1,000 live births, a maternal mortality ratio below 100 per lakh live births, 80 per cent institutional deliveries, universal immunisation and marriage of girls not before 18 and preferably after 20.
• Mission Parivar Vikas (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2016) widened contraceptive choice in 146 high fertility districts.

Population education

• Population education helps people understand how population size and structure affect their family, society and environment, so that they make informed and responsible choices. Its objectives are to build awareness of the link between population and development, to promote the small family norm and responsible parenthood, to explain the value of spacing and later marriage, to teach adolescent reproductive health, and to challenge son preference.
• The measures are the National Population Education Project of the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT), begun in 1980, the Adolescence Education Programme in schools, the School Health and Wellness Programme under Ayushman Bharat (2020), Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram (2014), counselling by Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs), and community events such as "saas bahu sammelans" under Mission Parivar Vikas.

Why empowering women controls population growth

• Education delays marriage and first birth, raises a woman's say in family decisions and improves child survival, which reduces the need to have "extra" children. NFHS 5 shows that women with no schooling have a TFR of about 2.8, against about 1.8 for women with twelve or more years of schooling.
• Kerala reached replacement fertility in the late 1980s at modest income levels, through female literacy, public health and later marriage. Amartya Sen, in Population: Delusion and Reality (1994), contrasted Kerala with China: Kerala lowered fertility as fast as China did without any coercion, which shows that women's agency, not compulsion, lasts.
• The limit of the argument is that empowerment is necessary but not sufficient, since Bihar's fertility also depends on poverty, poor health services and the unmet need for contraception, which NFHS 5 put at about 9.4 per cent.

Issues and way forward

• Jobs for the young. The dividend is wasted when growth does not create enough work; labour intensive manufacturing, services and the skilling missions of the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship must be linked to real employers, as the Economic Survey has repeatedly urged.
• Women outside paid work. Care burdens and unsafe transport keep women at home; childcare, safe travel and flexible jobs would raise both participation and the dividend.
• Ageing without security. Most older people lack pensions; the India Ageing Report 2023 recommends universal pensions, geriatric care in primary health centres and support for older women living alone.
• North south divergence. The fear of losing seats and funds needs a political settlement; options include keeping the Lok Sabha seat freeze, enlarging the House, or giving a weight to demographic performance as the Fifteenth Finance Commission did.
• Migration. Ageing states need workers from young states, so portable ration cards, housing and rights for migrants are part of population policy.

Common confusions

• Replacement level and stable population. Replacement TFR (2.1) is reached first; the population stabilises only decades later because of momentum.
• Population control and population stabilisation. Control implies targets and pressure; stabilisation, the aim of NPP 2000, works through choice and health.
• Demographic dividend and demographic winter. The dividend comes from a bulge of working age adults; the winter comes when too few children are born to replace them.

For the exam

• Keyword bank: demographic transition, population momentum, total fertility rate, replacement level, dependency ratio, demographic dividend, demographic winter, LASI, target free approach, NPP 2000, delimitation freeze, population education, women's agency.
• Previous year questions: Practise the previous year questions on this topic →
• Use in an answer:
  • Introduction (data): NFHS 5 recorded India's total fertility rate at 2.0, below replacement, yet Bihar stands at 3.0 and Sikkim at 1.1, so India's demographic transition is really many transitions at different speeds.
  • Introduction (quote or report): Amartya Sen showed that Kerala reduced fertility as fast as China without any coercion, simply by educating and empowering women.
  • Conclusion: India has a window of about three decades to turn its young population into a dividend through jobs, skills, health and women's work, before it begins to age like East Asia.
  • Conclusion: Population policy in India has moved from counting sterilisations to expanding choices, and its next task is to prepare for ageing and to share the gains of the transition fairly between states.