The global climate regime

The first principle

The atmosphere is a global commons: a tonne of carbon dioxide warms the whole planet wherever it is emitted, so a country that cuts alone pays the full cost and gets only a small share of the benefit. Climate treaties exist to make cooperation worth joining, and because some countries filled the atmosphere long before others began to industrialise, every rule is argued through the lens of fairness. The history of the regime is a search for a design that is both fair and widely joined, from the binding targets of Kyoto to the self set pledges of Paris.

The core

The Convention, 1992

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was opened for signature at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and entered into force on 21 March 1994, and nearly every country is a Party. Its objective in Article 2 is to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that prevents dangerous human interference with the climate system.
• Its principles in Article 3 include common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC) and the precautionary principle, and its annexes put them into practice: Annex I lists the industrialised countries and economies in transition, Annex II the richer ones among them that must provide finance, and all others are non Annex I Parties.
• Its machinery. The Conference of the Parties (COP) meets every year as the supreme body, two subsidiary bodies prepare its decisions, and the secretariat sits in Bonn.

The Kyoto Protocol, 1997

• Binding targets for the rich. Adopted at the third COP and in force from February 2005, the protocol gave the industrialised countries in its Annex B binding targets that together cut emissions by about 5 per cent below 1990 levels over 2008 to 2012, and set none for developing countries.
• Three flexible mechanisms let countries meet targets abroad: international emissions trading, Joint Implementation between industrialised countries, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which earned credits for projects in developing countries such as India. The Doha Amendment of 2012 added a second period for 2013 to 2020.
• Why it faltered. The United States never ratified it, Canada withdrew, and large emerging emitters had no targets, so its coverage of world emissions shrank as their share grew.

The Paris Agreement, 2015

• Goals. Adopted at the twenty first COP on 12 December 2015 and in force from 4 November 2016, the agreement aims in Article 2 to hold warming well below 2 °C and to pursue 1.5 °C, to strengthen adaptation, and to make finance flows consistent with low emission development.
• Pledges, not quotas. Under Article 4 each Party sets its own nationally determined contribution (NDC) and updates it every five years, each meant to be a progression beyond the last; the targets are not legally binding, but preparing, communicating and pursuing an NDC is.
• The other articles. Article 6 allows carbon markets, Article 7 sets a global goal on adaptation, Article 8 covers loss and damage, Article 9.1 says developed countries shall provide finance, and Article 13 sets up an enhanced transparency framework under which every Party reports its emissions and progress in biennial transparency reports, the first due at the end of 2024. Article 15 sets up a compliance committee that is facilitative and does not punish.
• The ratchet. Article 14 sets up a global stocktake every five years to assess collective progress and inform the next round of NDCs. The first concluded at COP28 in Dubai in 2023, which called on Parties to contribute to tripling renewable capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency gains by 2030 and to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner; the second concludes in 2028.

Dimensions

• Equity. Developed countries emitted most of the carbon dioxide now in the air, so developing countries insist that they cut first and pay, while the developed side points to China's and India's present emissions; the Paris preamble's references to climate justice and sustainable lifestyles were pressed by India.
• Finance. Developing countries need money to cut emissions and adapt, so the size and source of finance decide how ambitious their NDCs can be.
• Legal. Paris binds Parties to procedure, such as reporting and review, but not to outcomes, which brought in every major emitter at the cost of enforcement.
• Political. The United States left Paris in 2020, rejoined in 2021 and left again with effect from January 2026, and on 7 January 2026 it announced that it would also leave the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); a withdrawal from the Convention takes effect one year after notice. One large emitter's exit weakens finance and trust, though the rules continue.
• Negotiating blocs. The Group of 77 and China, the Like Minded Developing Countries, the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India, China), the small island states and the least developed countries often want different things, so outcomes are compromises among them as much as between rich and poor.
• Trade. Border carbon taxes such as the European Union's are seen by developing countries as unilateral trade measures, and the COP30 decision provided for dialogues on trade and climate.

In practice

Finance

• The old goal. Developed countries promised in 2009 to mobilise 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 for developing countries; the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found it was first met in 2022, at 115.9 billion dollars, two years late and with much of it as loans.
• The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), agreed at COP29 in Baku in November 2024, sets at least 300 billion dollars a year by 2035 for developing countries, with developed countries taking the lead but from a wide variety of public and private sources, and calls on all actors to scale finance to at least 1.3 trillion dollars a year by 2035. India objected at the closing plenary that the sum was too small.
• The funds. The Green Climate Fund, set up in 2010, is the largest dedicated fund, and the Global Environment Facility and the Adaptation Fund also serve the Convention.

Loss and damage

• From talk to a fund. The Warsaw International Mechanism of 2013 first recognised loss and damage, COP27 at Sharm el-Sheikh in 2022 agreed to set up a fund, and COP28 made the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage operational, with the World Bank as interim host and trustee and its board based in the Philippines. Pledges remain below 1 billion dollars, and its start up phase, the Barbados Implementation Modalities, offers 250 million dollars in grants of 5 to 20 million dollars, against requests several times larger.

COP30, Belém, November 2025

• What was agreed. The headline decision, the Global Mutirão, called for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035; Parties adopted 59 indicators to track the global goal on adaptation, agreed to develop a just transition mechanism whose details are due at COP31, began a two year work programme on finance including Article 9.1, and adopted a new gender action plan. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which pays countries to keep standing forest, was launched with pledges of several billion dollars.
• What was not. A roadmap for moving away from fossil fuels did not enter the negotiated text; the Brazilian presidency said it would take the work forward on its own, and more than 80 countries backed the call for one.
• What comes next. COP31 meets at Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026, with Australia leading the negotiations, Ethiopia hosts COP32 in 2027, and India has offered to host COP33 in 2028.

Issues and way forward

• The ambition gap. Even fully met, present NDCs put the world well above 1.5 °C, because the first stocktake found emissions must fall about 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels; stronger NDCs backed by finance for developing countries are the only route within the Paris design.
• Finance that is not finance. Loans counted at face value, private money and relabelled aid inflate the figures, so a common definition of climate finance and more grants for adaptation, as developing countries ask, would build trust.
• Consensus is slow. Decisions need consensus, so a few Parties can hold up a text, as the objections at the closing plenaries of Baku and Belém showed; presidency initiatives and coalitions of the willing now carry work the formal process cannot.
• Enforcement rests on transparency. With no penalties, the regime works only if reports are accurate and public, so helping developing countries build inventory systems for the transparency framework matters as much as new pledges.

Common confusions

• UNFCCC and IPCC. The UNFCCC is a treaty under which governments negotiate; the IPCC is a scientific body that assesses research and makes no policy.
• Kyoto and Paris on differentiation. Kyoto split the world into two fixed lists with and without targets; Paris asks every Party for an NDC and differentiates through flexibility and support instead.
• NDC and long term strategy. An NDC is a five year pledge with targets for a set year; a long term low emission development strategy, such as India's path to net zero by 2070, sets direction without binding numbers.
• Adaptation finance and loss and damage. Adaptation finance helps avoid harm, such as a sea wall; loss and damage funding pays for harm that adaptation could not prevent, such as rebuilding after a cyclone.
• Global stocktake and transparency framework. The stocktake judges collective progress of the whole world; the transparency framework reviews each Party's own reports.

For the exam

• Keyword bank: global commons, free rider, CBDR-RC, Annex I and non Annex I, Kyoto flexible mechanisms, nationally determined contribution, ratchet mechanism, enhanced transparency framework, global stocktake, transition away from fossil fuels, NCQG, Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, Global Goal on Adaptation, Global Mutirão, climate justice.
• Previous year questions: Practise the previous year questions on this topic →
• Use in an answer:
  • Introduction with data: At Baku in 2024 the world agreed a finance goal of at least 300 billion dollars a year by 2035, while estimates of developing countries' needs run into trillions, which is why finance remains the fault line of climate talks.
  • Introduction with a report: The first global stocktake at Dubai in 2023 found that emissions must fall about 43 per cent by 2030 from 2019 levels to keep 1.5 °C within reach, and called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
  • Conclusion: Paris traded binding targets for universal participation, so its success now depends on what makes pledges credible: finance, technology and transparent reporting.
  • Conclusion: For India, a fair regime is one where those who used most of the carbon budget lead in cutting and paying, while every country still moves, which is the essence of common but differentiated responsibilities.